Summary
International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications
2008
Session Number:B3L-B
Session:
Number:B3L-B2
Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying Avian Influenza Outbreaks
Cristian Carmeli, Michael Small,
pp.-
Publication Date:2008/9/7
Online ISSN:2188-5079
Summary:
Using global case data for the period from 25 November 2003 to 10 March 2007, we construct a time series of the number of outbreaks for the spread of avian influenza among domestic and wild birds. The correlations of these spread patterns are reflected in a power-law scaling of this property. The temporal dynamic of the spread of influenza is further investigated with a standard nonlinear time series analysis tool. We suggest that the dynamic underlying the spread of avian influenza is not low-dimensional and hence, characterized by short term unpredictability.