Summary
2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications
2007
Session Number:18PM2-A
Session:
Number:18PM2-A-2
Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza
Michael Small, David M Walker, Chi K. Tse,
pp.264-267
Publication Date:2007/9/16
Online ISSN:2188-5079
DOI:10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2
Summary:
Traditional models for geographical spread of infectious agents invoke a diffusion mechanism. By observing the global distribution of avian influenza outbreaks among wild and domestic birds, we show that this model is not appropriate. We find that the outbreaks of avian influenza follow a scale-free distribution that can accurately model connectivity between outbreaks on a scale-free complex network. We explore possible mechanisms that can generate such complex transmission dynamics. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in both the human and animal populations is insufficient to explain our results. Only when we model the potential transmission pathways between flocks with a scale-free network do we obtain a scale-free distribution of connectivity between outbreaks.