Asia-Pacific Network Operations and Management Symposium


Session Number:P2



A Fault Prediction Method Based on Load-capacity Model in the Communication Network

Xilin Ji,  Xiao Liang,  Yun Zhou,  Yonghua Huo,  Xiaodan Shi,  Yang Yang,  


Publication Date:2019/9/18

Online ISSN:2188-5079


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Due to the connectivity of the communication network, the occurrence of faults is often cascaded. The infrastructure of the communication network is extremely vulnerable to the failure of the hardware and software, resulting in the node to fail to work. Moreover, large-scale application service failure is often caused by the cascade effect after the failure occurs. Therefore, researching and predicting fault behavior becomes important for maintaining the reliability of the communication network. This paper analyzes the mechanism of fault cascading propagation in communication networks, and proposes a fault prediction model based on load capacity model, resetting the node load and capacity to exhibit a non-linear relationship and sets the node load to be dynamically changing, which is more suitable for the flow of the actual network. The original load capacity model has only two states of normal and fault, but the state can be between normal and fault in the real network. Therefore, this paper adds a third state-congestion state to the model to make the model more meet the actual characteristics of the communication network. In addition, this paper also proposes a load redistribution strategy based on Top K node intermediary, which is used to simulate network traffic redistribution. The experimental results show that the fault prediction model proposed in this paper has improved the precision and accuracy of the prediction, and has a good prediction effect.