Presentation 2002/3/15
Sequential Failure Logic with Uncertainty
Tsuneharu SHIMODAIRA, Yoshinobu SATO, Koichi SUYAMA,
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Abstract(in English) This paper describes how the uncertainty of statistics on input events affects the output event in fault tree analysis with sequential failure logic. Usually β factor method is applied to the analysis of common cause failures of subsystems. However, this method can not be applied to the analysis of the common cause failures of two subsystems if the system is composed of three subsystems. In the present paper, the distributions of output event are obtained by way of Monte Carlo simulations for three inputs events with the statistics of normal distributions, in order to analyze the relationships between the uncertainty of inputs and that of output. Moreover, the difference between the β factor method and MGL method that can be applied to the common cause failures of two subsystems in the system with three subsystems is discussed.
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Keyword(in English) uncertainty / sequential failure logic / normal distribution
Paper # CPM2001-152
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Committee CPM
Conference Date 2002/3/15(1days)
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Language JPN
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page)
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page)
Title (in English) Sequential Failure Logic with Uncertainty
Sub Title (in English)
Keyword(1) uncertainty
Keyword(2) sequential failure logic
Keyword(3) normal distribution
1st Author's Name Tsuneharu SHIMODAIRA
1st Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine()
2nd Author's Name Yoshinobu SATO
2nd Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine
3rd Author's Name Koichi SUYAMA
3rd Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine
Date 2002/3/15
Paper # CPM2001-152
Volume (vol) vol.101
Number (no) 741
Page pp.pp.-
#Pages 5
Date of Issue