| Presentation | 2003/3/19 Applicability of Statistical Models for Risk Analyses : A Probabilistic Model of Support Systems for Prevention of Right-Turn Collisions Haihong Ye, Tsuneharu Shimodaira, Yoshinobu Sato, Koichi Suyama, |
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| PDF Download Page | PDF download Page Link |
| Abstract(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Abstract(in English) | In quantitative risk analyses, the top event of fault tree (FT) is originated from basic events through logical causation mechanisms. The occurrences of basic events are often modeled with failure and repair rates with exponential distributions. However, the exponential distribution could not always reflect the reality in some cases where normal or other types of distribution should be adapted. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulations are practiced for the risk estimation of turning to the right collisions caused by automobiles. Comparisons are made between two statistic models, exponential and normal distributions. The result shows the deviation rates are within 10% for those cases. It is concluded that the exponential distribution is applicable to the probabilistic models of FTA where normal distribution would be more suitable. |
| Keyword(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Keyword(in English) | Right-Turn Collision Prevention System(RCPS) / Sequential Failure Logic(SFL) / Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS) |
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| Conference Information | |
| Committee | SSS |
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| Conference Date | 2003/3/19(1days) |
| Place (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) | |
| Topics (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
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| Registration To | Safety (SSS) |
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| Language | JPN |
| Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) | Applicability of Statistical Models for Risk Analyses : A Probabilistic Model of Support Systems for Prevention of Right-Turn Collisions |
| Sub Title (in English) | |
| Keyword(1) | Right-Turn Collision Prevention System(RCPS) |
| Keyword(2) | Sequential Failure Logic(SFL) |
| Keyword(3) | Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS) |
| 1st Author's Name | Haihong Ye |
| 1st Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine() |
| 2nd Author's Name | Tsuneharu Shimodaira |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine |
| 3rd Author's Name | Yoshinobu Sato |
| 3rd Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine |
| 4th Author's Name | Koichi Suyama |
| 4th Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine |
| Date | 2003/3/19 |
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| Volume (vol) | vol.102 |
| Number (no) | 740 |
| Page | pp.pp.- |
| #Pages | 4 |
| Date of Issue | |