Presentation 2004-07-21
An E-mail Virus Diffusion Model
Daisuke SATOH, Masato UCHIDA, Keisuke ISHIBASHI, Makoto KOBAYASHI,
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Abstract(in English) We propose a model of computer viruses that infect other computers by using e-mail. We assume that infection-ratio is constant. We obtain an discrete equation by modeling the computer viruses that infect other computers by using e-mail. The discrete equation is reduced to the Riccati equation under a limit where the time interval equals O. We analyze the effect of the initial number of infected computers to the total number of computers infected in the infinitely long duration by using a discrete equation that has an exact solution. We also analyze the condition that the infected curve becomes the logistic curve. We show that this model describes actual data of computer viruses. Akaike's information criteria (AIC) shows that the model is superior to a linear model. Finally, we propose another model whose infect ratio is varying. We propose the equation of the model is a discrete equation that has an exact solution.
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Keyword(in English) Computer virus / Worm propagation / E-mail / Riccati equation / Discrete equation / Exact solution
Paper # ISEC2004-42
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Committee ISEC
Conference Date 2004/7/14(1days)
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Registration To Information Security (ISEC)
Language JPN
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page)
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page)
Title (in English) An E-mail Virus Diffusion Model
Sub Title (in English)
Keyword(1) Computer virus
Keyword(2) Worm propagation
Keyword(3) E-mail
Keyword(4) Riccati equation
Keyword(5) Discrete equation
Keyword(6) Exact solution
1st Author's Name Daisuke SATOH
1st Author's Affiliation NTT Service Integration Laboratories()
2nd Author's Name Masato UCHIDA
2nd Author's Affiliation NTT Service Integration Laboratories
3rd Author's Name Keisuke ISHIBASHI
3rd Author's Affiliation NTT Information Sharing Platform Laboratories
4th Author's Name Makoto KOBAYASHI
4th Author's Affiliation Nihon Software Products
Date 2004-07-21
Paper # ISEC2004-42
Volume (vol) vol.104
Number (no) 200
Page pp.pp.-
#Pages 6
Date of Issue