| Presentation | 2022-01-11 Constructon of Real-Time Win Probability Model in B.LEAGUE Koji Sugie, Eiji Konaka, |
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| PDF Download Page |  PDF download Page Link |
| Abstract(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Abstract(in English) | Recently, it is widely investigated that the construction of mathematical models calculating predicted win probability for various situations of sports matches. This research is active for famous sports in different places. For instance, in Japan, it is active in Shogi or baseball. In North America and Europe, it is active for basketball, American football, and more. This study aims to construct a win probability model for professional basketball. The proposed model satisfies the monotonicity of the predicted win probability concerning the score difference. A win probability model will be constructed using match results of B.LEAGUE. The constructed model will be verified based on prediction accuracy, logarithmic loss, and calibration values. |
| Keyword(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Keyword(in English) | win probability model / generalized linear regression |
| Paper # | MSS2021-45,SS2021-32 |
| Date of Issue | 2022-01-04 (MSS, SS) |
| Conference Information | |
| Committee | SS / MSS |
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| Conference Date | 2022/1/11(2days) |
| Place (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) | Nagasakiken-Kensetsu-Sogo-Kaikan Bldg. |
| Topics (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Topics (in English) | Mathematical Systems Science and its Applications, Software Science, etc. |
| Chair | Takashi Kobayashi(Tokyo Inst. of Tech.) / Atsuo Ozaki(Osaka Inst. of Tech.) |
| Vice Chair | Kozo Okano(Shinshu Univ.) / Shingo Yamaguchi(Yamaguchi Univ.) |
| Secretary | Kozo Okano(Hiroshima City Univ.) / Shingo Yamaguchi(Tokyo Inst. of Tech.) |
| Assistant | Shinpei Ogata(Shinshu Univ.) / Masato Shirai(Shimane Univ.) |
| Paper Information | |
| Registration To | Technical Committee on Software Science / Technical Committee on Mathematical Systems Science and its Applications |
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| Language | JPN |
| Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) | Constructon of Real-Time Win Probability Model in B.LEAGUE |
| Sub Title (in English) | |
| Keyword(1) | win probability model |
| Keyword(2) | generalized linear regression |
| 1st Author's Name | Koji Sugie |
| 1st Author's Affiliation | Meijo University(Meijo Univ.) |
| 2nd Author's Name | Eiji Konaka |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation | Meijo University(Meijo Univ.) |
| Date | 2022-01-11 |
| Paper # | MSS2021-45,SS2021-32 |
| Volume (vol) | vol.121 |
| Number (no) | MSS-317,SS-318 |
| Page | pp.pp.78-82(MSS), pp.78-82(SS), |
| #Pages | 5 |
| Date of Issue | 2022-01-04 (MSS, SS) |