| Presentation | 2020-10-30 Quantitative Evaluation of the Effects of Quarantine of Infected Person Using Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases Ayumi Manabe, Kazuya Sawada, Nanfu Miya, Tohru Ikeguchi, |
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| PDF Download Page |  PDF download Page Link |
| Abstract(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Abstract(in English) | In 2020, COVID-19 has become a global pandemic and is still spreading. One of the reason why COVID-19 spreads widely is that it has high infectivity and some patients infected uncousciously. While the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 virus would take much more time, one of the main strategies taken to control the spread of infection is the quarantine of infected persons. However, it is an important issue to quantitatively investigate to what extent the quarantine of infected patients can reduce the spread of infection. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the quarantine to control the spread of infection, using a stochastic infection transmission model on networks. First, we propose an r-SIAR model that introduces the process of quarantine of infected persons and a class of recovering persons. The proposed r-SIAR model has stochastic dynamics of state transitions at each vertex on the network. Next, using the proposed model, we simulated the spread of infectious diseases and investigated how much the final infection rates are reduced when the infected patients were quarantined. We found that depending on the network structure and infectivity, the quarantine of infectious person is not effective. |
| Keyword(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Keyword(in English) | complex network / infection transmission model / spread of infectious disease / COVID-19 |
| Paper # | CAS2020-14,NLP2020-35 |
| Date of Issue | 2020-10-22 (CAS, NLP) |
| Conference Information | |
| Committee | MBE / NC / NLP / CAS |
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| Conference Date | 2020/10/29(2days) |
| Place (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) | Online |
| Topics (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Topics (in English) | ME，NC，CAS，NLP |
| Chair | Takashi Watanabe(Tohoku Univ.) / Kazuyuki Samejima(Tamagawa Univ) / Kiyohisa Natsume(Kyushu Inst. of Tech.) / Yasuhiro Takashima(Univ. of Kitakyushu) |
| Vice Chair | Ryuhei Okuno(Setsunan Univ.) / Rieko Osu(Waseda Univ.) / Takuji Kosaka(Chukyo Univ.) / Hiroki Sato(Sony LSI Design) |
| Secretary | Ryuhei Okuno(Akita-noken) / Rieko Osu(NTT) / Takuji Kosaka(ATR) / Hiroki Sato(Kyushu Inst. of Tech.) |
| Assistant | Akihiro Karashima(Tohoku Inst. of Tech.) / Jun Akazawa(Meiji Univ. of Integrative Medicine) / Ken Takiyama(TUAT) / Nobuhiko Wagatsuma(Toho Univ.) / Toshikaza Samura(Yamaguchi Univ.) / Hideyuki Kato(Oita Univ.) / Motoi Yamaguchi(TECHNOPRO) / Yohei Nakamura(Hitachi) |
| Paper Information | |
| Registration To | Technical Committee on ME and Bio Cybernetics / Technical Committee on Neurocomputing / Technical Committee on Nonlinear Problems / Technical Committee on Circuits and Systems |
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| Language | JPN |
| Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) | Quantitative Evaluation of the Effects of Quarantine of Infected Person Using Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases |
| Sub Title (in English) | |
| Keyword(1) | complex network |
| Keyword(2) | infection transmission model |
| Keyword(3) | spread of infectious disease |
| Keyword(4) | COVID-19 |
| 1st Author's Name | Ayumi Manabe |
| 1st Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Science(TUS) |
| 2nd Author's Name | Kazuya Sawada |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Science(TUS) |
| 3rd Author's Name | Nanfu Miya |
| 3rd Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Science(TUS) |
| 4th Author's Name | Tohru Ikeguchi |
| 4th Author's Affiliation | Tokyo University of Science(TUS) |
| Date | 2020-10-30 |
| Paper # | CAS2020-14,NLP2020-35 |
| Volume (vol) | vol.120 |
| Number (no) | CAS-213,NLP-214 |
| Page | pp.pp.15-20(CAS), pp.15-20(NLP), |
| #Pages | 6 |
| Date of Issue | 2020-10-22 (CAS, NLP) |