| Presentation | 2019-05-24 Construction of a regression analysis model of the electricity market including weather data Hiroyuki Ogura, Shunsuke Managi, Masahiko Ishino, |
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| PDF Download Page |  PDF download Page Link |
| Abstract(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Abstract(in English) | In this paper, we constructed a regression analysis model of the electricity power market including weather data, using panel data of the power saving behavior in the home acquired by Nakanojo power demand response demonstration experiment in Gunma prefecture. At the same time, we used the Japan Wholesale Power Exchange (JEPX) data set (the total execution quantity, the market price). And we estimated the model coefficients and elasticity of the parameters (price, DR, temperature, sunlight hours) of the power demand change. As a result of our analysis, the DR effect of incentive type DR is larger than that of electric power type DR except in FY2017 winter season. In other words, because power is an essential product for the living environment and production activities of consumers, etc., we confirmed that benefit and economic rationality, such as comfort and productivity, was given priority over electricity prices, especially when power was tight, such as severe weather. By using the power market regression model including the weather data proposed in this paper, it is possible to predict the DR effect of electricity rate DR and incentive DR more accurately. And, it can be used for power supply balance adjustment. |
| Keyword(in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Keyword(in English) | consumer electricity resources / social benefit effect / wholesale power market / demand response / price elasticity / panel data regression analysis / fixed effect / randam effect |
| Paper # | KBSE2019-2,SWIM2019-2 |
| Date of Issue | 2019-05-17 (KBSE, SWIM) |
| Conference Information | |
| Committee | SWIM / KBSE |
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| Conference Date | 2019/5/24(2days) |
| Place (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) | Kikai-Shinko-Kaikan Bldg. |
| Topics (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Topics (in English) | |
| Chair | Tadashi Ogino(Meisei Univ.) / Fumihiro Kumeno(Nippon Inst. of Tech.) |
| Vice Chair | Masahiko Ishino(Bunkyo Univ.) / Hiroyuki Nakagawa(Osaka Univ.) |
| Secretary | Masahiko Ishino(Hosei Univ.) / Hiroyuki Nakagawa(Shizuoka Inst. of Science and Tech.) |
| Assistant | Shinya Nogami(Tokyo Univ. of Science) / Koji Yamada(Osaka Sangyo Univ.) / Ryuichi Takahashi(Ibaraki Univ.) / Yoshinori Tanabe(Tsurumi Univ.) |
| Paper Information | |
| Registration To | Technical Committee on Software Interprise Modeling / Technical Committee on Knowledge-Based Software Engineering |
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| Language | JPN |
| Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) | (See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) | Construction of a regression analysis model of the electricity market including weather data |
| Sub Title (in English) | Economic analysis of price effect, energy conservation effect and social welfare effect |
| Keyword(1) | consumer electricity resources |
| Keyword(2) | social benefit effect |
| Keyword(3) | wholesale power market |
| Keyword(4) | demand response |
| Keyword(5) | price elasticity |
| Keyword(6) | panel data regression analysis |
| Keyword(7) | fixed effect |
| Keyword(8) | randam effect |
| 1st Author's Name | Hiroyuki Ogura |
| 1st Author's Affiliation | Mitsubishi Electric Corporation(Mitsubishi Electric Corp.) |
| 2nd Author's Name | Shunsuke Managi |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation | Kyushu University(Kyushu Univ.) |
| 3rd Author's Name | Masahiko Ishino |
| 3rd Author's Affiliation | Bunkyo University(Bunkyo Univ.) |
| Date | 2019-05-24 |
| Paper # | KBSE2019-2,SWIM2019-2 |
| Volume (vol) | vol.119 |
| Number (no) | KBSE-56,SWIM-57 |
| Page | pp.pp.9-16(KBSE), pp.9-16(SWIM), |
| #Pages | 8 |
| Date of Issue | 2019-05-17 (KBSE, SWIM) |