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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2020-10-30 10:15
Quantitative Evaluation of the Effects of Quarantine of Infected Person Using Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases
Ayumi Manabe, Kazuya Sawada, Nanfu Miya, Tohru Ikeguchi (TUS) CAS2020-14 NLP2020-35
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) In 2020, COVID-19 has become a global pandemic and is still spreading.
One of the reason why COVID-19 spreads widely is that it has high infectivity and some patients infected uncousciously.
While the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 virus would take much more time, one of the main strategies taken to control the spread of infection is the quarantine of infected persons.
However, it is an important issue to quantitatively investigate to what extent the quarantine of infected patients can reduce the spread of infection.
In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the quarantine to control the spread of infection, using a stochastic infection transmission model on networks. First, we propose an r-SIAR model that introduces the process of quarantine of infected persons and a class of recovering persons. The proposed r-SIAR model has stochastic dynamics of state transitions at each vertex on the network. Next, using the proposed model, we simulated the spread of infectious diseases and investigated how much the final infection rates are reduced when the infected patients were quarantined. We found that depending on the network structure and infectivity, the quarantine of infectious person is not effective.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) complex network / infection transmission model / spread of infectious disease / COVID-19 / / / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 120, no. 214, NLP2020-35, pp. 15-20, Oct. 2020.
Paper # NLP2020-35 
Date of Issue 2020-10-22 (CAS, NLP) 
ISSN Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685  Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
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Conference Information
Committee MBE NC NLP CAS  
Conference Date 2020-10-29 - 2020-10-30 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Online 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) ME,NC,CAS,NLP 
Paper Information
Registration To NLP 
Conference Code 2020-10-MBE-NC-NLP-CAS 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Quantitative Evaluation of the Effects of Quarantine of Infected Person Using Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) complex network  
Keyword(2) infection transmission model  
Keyword(3) spread of infectious disease  
Keyword(4) COVID-19  
1st Author's Name Ayumi Manabe  
1st Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Science (TUS)
2nd Author's Name Kazuya Sawada  
2nd Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Science (TUS)
3rd Author's Name Nanfu Miya  
3rd Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Science (TUS)
4th Author's Name Tohru Ikeguchi  
4th Author's Affiliation Tokyo University of Science (TUS)
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Date Time 2020-10-30 10:15:00 
Presentation Time 25 
Registration for NLP 
Paper # IEICE-CAS2020-14,IEICE-NLP2020-35 
Volume (vol) IEICE-120 
Number (no) no.213(CAS), no.214(NLP) 
Page pp.15-20 
#Pages IEICE-6 
Date of Issue IEICE-CAS-2020-10-22,IEICE-NLP-2020-10-22 

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