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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2019-12-13 10:15
The investigation of the framing effect on baseball judgements -- Can people overcome cognitive biases by their statistical knowledge? --
Taku Imaizumi, Kazuhiro Ueda (UTokyo)
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Previous studies showed that competition and large stakes extinguished biases. A baseball manager, who is a decision maker in a baseball game, regards a decrease in an attack opportunity as a loss in lead situations but does a defeat in a game as a loss in behind situations. We thus predict that the framing effect, which changes the interpretation of the loss depending on the point differences, will occur. The present study investigated this prediction by comparing the actual and optimal base stealing tendencies in Major League Baseball (MLB). As a result, we found an irrational tendency based on the framing effect both in the latest year and 20 years ago. Despite developing statistical knowledge in recent MLB, cognitive biases have been observed even in baseball decision-making scenes where competition and large stakes exist.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Prospect Theory / Loss Aversion / Framing Effect / Baseball / Baseball Direction / / /  
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Conference Information
Committee HCGSYMPO  
Conference Date 2019-12-11 - 2019-12-13 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Hiroshima-ken Joho Plaza (Hiroshima) 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) HCG Symposium 2019 
Paper Information
Registration To HCGSYMPO 
Conference Code 2019-12-HCGSYMPO 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) The investigation of the framing effect on baseball judgements 
Sub Title (in English) Can people overcome cognitive biases by their statistical knowledge? 
Keyword(1) Prospect Theory  
Keyword(2) Loss Aversion  
Keyword(3) Framing Effect  
Keyword(4) Baseball  
Keyword(5) Baseball Direction  
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1st Author's Name Taku Imaizumi  
1st Author's Affiliation The University of Tokyo (UTokyo)
2nd Author's Name Kazuhiro Ueda  
2nd Author's Affiliation The University of Tokyo (UTokyo)
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Speaker Author-1 
Date Time 2019-12-13 10:15:00 
Presentation Time 15 minutes 
Registration for HCGSYMPO 
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