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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2019-03-15 14:05
Estimation of the critical transition probability using quadratic polynomial approximation
Makito Oku (Univ. Toyama)
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) Critical transitions are large-scale state transitions that occur occasionally in various complex systems such as ecosystems, climate systems, and financial markets. In order to help predict critical transitions before they occur, several measures have been proposed such as the variance and autocorrelation of a state variable and the time constant of an impulse response. These measures can be calculated even if the equation describing the dynamics of the target system or its parameters are unknown. However, these are related to the linear stability of a stable equilibrium, and nonlinearity is not considered. Here, I propose a novel approach in which the equation of the target dynamical system is approximated by a quadratic polynomial based on the observed data, and the critical transition probability is estimated from the potential shape and the noise intensity. I applied this approach to May model, a mathematical model of an ecosystem, as an example case, and the results are reported.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) critical transition / stability / quadratic polynomial / potential / May model / / /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 118, no. 498, NLP2018-135, pp. 57-62, March 2019.
Paper # NLP2018-135 
Date of Issue 2019-03-07 (NLP) 
ISSN Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685  Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380

Conference Information
Committee NLP MSS  
Conference Date 2019-03-14 - 2019-03-15 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Bunkyo Camp., Univ. of Fukui 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) SICE-DES, IEICE-MSS, IEICE-NLP, Work In Progress, and etc. 
Paper Information
Registration To NLP 
Conference Code 2019-03-NLP-MSS 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Estimation of the critical transition probability using quadratic polynomial approximation 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) critical transition  
Keyword(2) stability  
Keyword(3) quadratic polynomial  
Keyword(4) potential  
Keyword(5) May model  
1st Author's Name Makito Oku  
1st Author's Affiliation University of Toyama (Univ. Toyama)
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Date Time 2019-03-15 14:05:00 
Presentation Time 25 
Registration for NLP 
Paper # IEICE-NLP2018-135 
Volume (vol) IEICE-118 
Number (no) no.498 
Page pp.57-62 
#Pages IEICE-6 
Date of Issue IEICE-NLP-2019-03-07 

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