IEICE Technical Committee Submission System
Conference Paper's Information
Online Proceedings
[Sign in]
... (for ESS/CS/ES/ISS)
Tech. Rep. Archives
... (for ES/CS)
 Go Top Page Go Previous   [Japanese] / [English] 

Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2013-10-18 13:30
PoP: Prediction on Predictions
Hideo Hirose, Takenori Sakumura, Yuki Koyanagi (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.) R2013-64
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) In observing the widely spread of patients caused by infectious diseases or the increase of the number of failures of equipments, it is crucial to predict the final number of infected patients or failures at earlier stages. To estimate the number of infected patients, the SIR model is commonly used even when the size of observed data is small. Other methods, such as the ordinary differential equation model, statistical truncated model are also useful to estimate the number of infected patients. These methods are also applicable to the increase of the number of failures.
The predicted value for the final number of patients using data until time T becomes a function (trend) of T. We here consider the use of this trend again to predict the final number of patients.
It seems that the prediction accuracy will not be increased by this method because we use the same data.
However, we may expect the better predicted values if we apply the multiple methodologies to the same data. In this paper, we show this by applying the results of the SARS case using the proposed method.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) PoP / Pandemic / SIR model / ordinary differential equation model / statistical truncated model / generalized logistic distribution / BBS method /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 113, no. 249, R2013-64, pp. 1-6, Oct. 2013.
Paper # R2013-64 
Date of Issue 2013-10-11 (R) 
ISSN Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685  Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (No. 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
Download PDF R2013-64

Conference Information
Committee R  
Conference Date 2013-10-18 - 2013-10-18 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English)  
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English)  
Paper Information
Registration To R 
Conference Code 2013-10-R 
Language English (Japanese title is available) 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) PoP: Prediction on Predictions 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) PoP  
Keyword(2) Pandemic  
Keyword(3) SIR model  
Keyword(4) ordinary differential equation model  
Keyword(5) statistical truncated model  
Keyword(6) generalized logistic distribution  
Keyword(7) BBS method  
1st Author's Name Hideo Hirose  
1st Author's Affiliation Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.)
2nd Author's Name Takenori Sakumura  
2nd Author's Affiliation Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.)
3rd Author's Name Yuki Koyanagi  
3rd Author's Affiliation Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.)
4th Author's Name  
4th Author's Affiliation ()
5th Author's Name  
5th Author's Affiliation ()
6th Author's Name  
6th Author's Affiliation ()
7th Author's Name  
7th Author's Affiliation ()
8th Author's Name  
8th Author's Affiliation ()
9th Author's Name  
9th Author's Affiliation ()
10th Author's Name  
10th Author's Affiliation ()
11th Author's Name  
11th Author's Affiliation ()
12th Author's Name  
12th Author's Affiliation ()
13th Author's Name  
13th Author's Affiliation ()
14th Author's Name  
14th Author's Affiliation ()
15th Author's Name  
15th Author's Affiliation ()
16th Author's Name  
16th Author's Affiliation ()
17th Author's Name  
17th Author's Affiliation ()
18th Author's Name  
18th Author's Affiliation ()
19th Author's Name  
19th Author's Affiliation ()
20th Author's Name  
20th Author's Affiliation ()
Date Time 2013-10-18 13:30:00 
Presentation Time 25 
Registration for R 
Paper # IEICE-R2013-64 
Volume (vol) IEICE-113 
Number (no) no.249 
Page pp.1-6 
#Pages IEICE-6 
Date of Issue IEICE-R-2013-10-11 

[Return to Top Page]

[Return to IEICE Web Page]

The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers (IEICE), Japan