Paper Abstract and Keywords |
Presentation |
2012-10-19 15:50
A Consideration on the Estimates of Failure Parameters using the Observed Data in Early Time Tsubasa Kawano, Hideo Hirose (KIT) R2012-59 |
Abstract |
(in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
(in English) |
We sometimes use the statistical model for truncated data when we want to predict the final stage for a pandemic or failures using the data in early pandemic period or failures. In such a situation, the estimates for number of patients or failures via the likelihood principle often become smaller than the true ones, which could be the dangerous side. Here, we consider the case of the logistic distribution for the underlying probability distribution function, and compare the results among the statistical truncated model, the simple ordinary differential equation model, and the SIR model which expresses the pandemic models. |
Keyword |
(in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
(in English) |
pandemic / logistic distribution / ordinary differential equation model / SIR model / / / / |
Reference Info. |
IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 112, no. 252, R2012-59, pp. 29-32, Oct. 2012. |
Paper # |
R2012-59 |
Date of Issue |
2012-10-12 (R) |
ISSN |
Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685 Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380 |
Copyright and reproduction |
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034) |
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R2012-59 |
Conference Information |
Committee |
R |
Conference Date |
2012-10-19 - 2012-10-19 |
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(See Japanese page) |
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Registration To |
R |
Conference Code |
2012-10-R |
Language |
Japanese |
Title (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
Sub Title (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
Title (in English) |
A Consideration on the Estimates of Failure Parameters using the Observed Data in Early Time |
Sub Title (in English) |
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pandemic |
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logistic distribution |
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ordinary differential equation model |
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SIR model |
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1st Author's Name |
Tsubasa Kawano |
1st Author's Affiliation |
Kyushu Institute of Technology (KIT) |
2nd Author's Name |
Hideo Hirose |
2nd Author's Affiliation |
Kyushu Institute of Technology (KIT) |
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Speaker |
Author-1 |
Date Time |
2012-10-19 15:50:00 |
Presentation Time |
25 minutes |
Registration for |
R |
Paper # |
R2012-59 |
Volume (vol) |
vol.112 |
Number (no) |
no.252 |
Page |
pp.29-32 |
#Pages |
4 |
Date of Issue |
2012-10-12 (R) |
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