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Paper Abstract and Keywords
Presentation 2009-10-16 15:40
Pandemic Analysis in Swine Influenza A(H1N1))
Yuki Toyosaka, Hideo Hirose (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.) R2009-38
Abstract (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) So far, we have proposed a combined model, the MADE, consisting of the SIR model with ordinary differential equations and the MAS model with multi-agent model, and shown its validity and efficiency with pandemic simulation study. Pandemic simulation is called a simulation by scenario because we have very small chance of observation. However, the influenza A (H1N1) (swine influenza) spread, suspected the beginning of outbreak in Mexico in April 2009, becomes a rare case of real pandemics. Now in September, infection is still spreading, and we do not know how large the spread would be expanded. In this paper, we have performed predictive simulations of influenza spread by the MADE model using the observed number of infested cases, as well as the prediction results by the statistical curve fitting method. Although we do not know how accurately the simulation results are consistent with the observed data, we believe that it is important to disclose the predictive results at the early stage of the pandemic. Using the MADE model with the data before July, 2009, we have obtained that 30 million Japanese could be infected finally and that 600-700 million people would be infected all over the world.
Keyword (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
(in English) influenza A(H1N1) / swine influenza / MADE model / MAS model / SIR model / truncated data / logistic distribution /  
Reference Info. IEICE Tech. Rep., vol. 109, no. 232, R2009-38, pp. 31-36, Oct. 2009.
Paper # R2009-38 
Date of Issue 2009-10-09 (R) 
ISSN Print edition: ISSN 0913-5685  Online edition: ISSN 2432-6380
All rights are reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Notwithstanding, instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles for noncommercial classroom use without fee. (License No.: 10GA0019/12GB0052/13GB0056/17GB0034/18GB0034)
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Conference Information
Committee R  
Conference Date 2009-10-16 - 2009-10-16 
Place (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Place (in English) Kyutech Plaza@Tenjin of Kyushu Institute of Technology 
Topics (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Topics (in English) Reliability and it's related topics 
Paper Information
Registration To R 
Conference Code 2009-10-R 
Language Japanese 
Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Sub Title (in Japanese) (See Japanese page) 
Title (in English) Pandemic Analysis in Swine Influenza A(H1N1)) 
Sub Title (in English)  
Keyword(1) influenza A(H1N1)  
Keyword(2) swine influenza  
Keyword(3) MADE model  
Keyword(4) MAS model  
Keyword(5) SIR model  
Keyword(6) truncated data  
Keyword(7) logistic distribution  
1st Author's Name Yuki Toyosaka  
1st Author's Affiliation Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.)
2nd Author's Name Hideo Hirose  
2nd Author's Affiliation Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyushu Inst. of Tech.)
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Date Time 2009-10-16 15:40:00 
Presentation Time 25 
Registration for R 
Paper # IEICE-R2009-38 
Volume (vol) IEICE-109 
Number (no) no.232 
Page pp.31-36 
#Pages IEICE-6 
Date of Issue IEICE-R-2009-10-09 

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