| Paper Abstract and Keywords |
| Presentation |
2017-01-21 12:30
[Poster Presentation]
Car Sales Prediction using State Space Model with Search Volume on the Web
Taichi Yamaguchi (Univ. of Tsukuba), Takaaki Tsunoda (CyberAgent), Mitsuo Yoshida (Toyohashi Tech), Sho Tsugawa, Mikio Yamamoto (Univ. of Tsukuba) |
| Abstract |
(in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| (in English) |
Regarding monthly car sales as time series data, we can predict the future car sales using state space models. However, the prediction accuracy using only past car sales data may be poor because of many unexpected trend changes. In this study, we focus on the search behavior which consumers do, and incorporate the trend changes into our prediction models. We define how much consumers search on the Web as "the search behavior volume". Since the search behavior volume of cars tends to show the same fluctuation prior to the fluctuation of the real car sales data, this data is useful for improving the prediction accuracy. We use Google Trends data provided by Google Inc. and page views data of Wikipedia released by Wikimedia Foundation. We develop the models incorporated with the search behavior volume, and show that the prediction accuracy is improved in 15 cars. |
| Keyword |
(in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| (in English) |
Search Behavior Volume / Google Trends / Wikipedia / State Space Model / Market Prediction / / / |
| Reference Info. |
IEICE Tech. Rep. |
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| Conference Information |
| Committee |
CQ |
| Conference Date |
2017-01-21 - 2017-01-21 |
| Place (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| Place (in English) |
Osaka University Nakanoshima Center |
| Topics (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| Topics (in English) |
Communication Quality Workshop |
| Paper Information |
| Registration To |
CQ |
| Conference Code |
2017-01-CQ |
| Language |
Japanese |
| Title (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| Sub Title (in Japanese) |
(See Japanese page) |
| Title (in English) |
Car Sales Prediction using State Space Model with Search Volume on the Web |
| Sub Title (in English) |
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| Keyword(1) |
Search Behavior Volume |
| Keyword(2) |
Google Trends |
| Keyword(3) |
Wikipedia |
| Keyword(4) |
State Space Model |
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Market Prediction |
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| 1st Author's Name |
Taichi Yamaguchi |
| 1st Author's Affiliation |
University of Tsukuba (Univ. of Tsukuba) |
| 2nd Author's Name |
Takaaki Tsunoda |
| 2nd Author's Affiliation |
CyberAgent, Inc. (CyberAgent) |
| 3rd Author's Name |
Mitsuo Yoshida |
| 3rd Author's Affiliation |
Toyohashi University of Technology (Toyohashi Tech) |
| 4th Author's Name |
Sho Tsugawa |
| 4th Author's Affiliation |
University of Tsukuba (Univ. of Tsukuba) |
| 5th Author's Name |
Mikio Yamamoto |
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University of Tsukuba (Univ. of Tsukuba) |
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| Speaker |
Author-1 |
| Date Time |
2017-01-21 12:30:00 |
| Presentation Time |
80 minutes |
| Registration for |
CQ |
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